GT4 – Análise Prospectiva

Coordenador:

António Brandão Moniz (FCT-UNL) – Coordenador do Programa Doutoral em “Avaliação de Tecnologia”

 

Membros:

Maria João Maia (Hospital de S. Maria, investigadora no IET/CESNova e doutoranda no PDAT da FCT-UNL)

Nuno Boavida (MCTES, Lisboa) – Estudante de doutoramento (PDAT)

Susana Martins Moretto – Estudante de doutoramento (PDAT)

Rosa Antunes (consultora) – Estudante de doutoramento (PDAT)

Mário Nuno Farelo – Professor Auxiliar Convidado da FCT-UNL e doutorando no PDAT

Gabriel T. Velloso – Estudante de doutoramento (PDAT)

Carlos Alberto Silva (Univ. Évora) – Director do Departamento de Sociologia

 

A proposta de trabalho para 2011-2012 encontra-se aqui

Actividades:

Workshop “A prospectiva na avaliação de tecnologia”, dia 13 de Abril de 2012

 

Estudo “Towards Scientific Foresight for the European Parliament” do STOA (Parlamento Europeu)

  • This study has been written by Lieve Van Woensel, PhD, and Darja Vrščaj, MSc, of the Scientific Foresight Service within the Directorate-General for Parliamentary Research Service (DG EPRS) of the General Secretariat of the European Parliament.

Página no Linkedin para debate de ideias sobre o tema deste grupo de trabalho. Disponível!

 

 

Comments
12 Responses to “GT4 – Análise Prospectiva”
  1. Susana Martins Moretto diz:

    Gostava de fazer parte do grupo

    • António Brandão Moniz diz:

      Obrigado Susana. O grupo está aberto e estamos agora a iniciar a discussão em torno de um documento genérico sobre os objectivos do grupo.

  2. Gostaria de participar nos trabalhos deste Grupo. Podemos trabalhar no GDoc’s?

    • abmoniz diz:

      Como teremos a nossa reunião na próxima 4ª feira às 17h30m na sala de reuniões do CESNova (FCSH-UNL) na Av. de Berna, gostaria que lessem o texto que está em discussão em https://docs.google.com/document/d/1m1H4otv5_dSuX00AyDASkOu44JS9MYj6JLXqpgDsKR0/edit?hl=pt_PT para o podermos aprovar e divulgar
      Obrigado

      (esta mensagem não é apenas para a Rosa, mas para todos os interessados)

  3. abmoniz diz:

    UK Foresight reports:
    http://www.bis.gov.uk/foresight/publications/reports

    Foresight / Health / Nanotechnology

    http://www.foresight.org/challenges/health.html

    Foresight / Body & Mind Sciences cluster

    http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/bispartners/foresight/docs/horizon-scanning-centre/s_t_clusters__body___mind_sciencesdoc_v01_12_06.pdf

    Scenario planning

    http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/bispartners/foresight/docs/horizon-scanning-centre/foresight_scenario_planning.pdf

  4. mariajmaia diz:

    Gostaria de partilhar um anexo do estudo “Screening the foresight exercises
    undertaken in 12 countries” e talvez sugerir a grelha que foi utizada para o desenvolvimento do nosso trabalho. Portugal faz parte do estudo! Sujeito a criticas!
    O que acham?

    mjmaia

    http://www.techforesight.ca/InternationalForesightReports/12CountryForesightScreening_EU.pdf

    • abmoniz diz:

      Interessante este resumo. Pena que sobre Portugal apenas haja informação do ET2000 que foi um exercício dedicado às possibilidades e limites do desenvolvimento da engenharia. É um estudo que teve bastante apoio financeiro, mas os resultados foram relativamente limitados. A metodologia apenas esteve assente em entrevistas a especialistas e em workshops. Em minha opinião, foi um exercício de prospectiva muito limitado e com muitas deficiências metodológicas.
      A grelha pode ser interessante para coligir informação sobre outros exercícios nacionais.

  5. abmoniz diz:

    Do nosso colega José Luiz Almeida e Silva:

    Subject: FUTURIST UPDATE October 2011

    Email not displaying correctly? View it in your browser.

    October 2011 • Volume 12, No. 10 In this issue:

    Tone of News Predicts Broad Social Behaviors
    Building Stronger Skyscrapers, Faster
    THE FUTURIST Presents an Evening with Aubrey de Grey
    Progress in Improving Global Literacy Is Steady, but Slow
    Votizen Wins Disruptathon Social Media Competition
    What’s Hot @WFS.ORG

    Tone of News Predicts Broad Social Behaviors Properly analyzed, the tone of news articles can predict large areas of the future, according to Kalev Leetaru, a researcher at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign. First, you need a lot of news items; Leetaru’s sample sets ran into the millions. Then you need the right parameters; Leetarau began with 1,500 dimensions of human emotions. Finally, you need a supercomputer capable of petascale processing (more than one quadrillion operations per second). Using a large, shared-memory supercomputer called Nautilus and a 30-year archive of global news, Leetaru was able to pinpoint the location of Osama Bin Laden within a 200-kilometer radius of Abbottabad, Pakistan, where the terrorist leader was eventually found. His model also retroactively predicted the social uprisings in Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya. “News is increasingly being produced and consumed online, supplanting print and broadcast to represent nearly half of the news monitored across the world today by Western intelligence agencies.… Computational analysis can yield novel insights to the functioning of society, including predicting future economic events,” Leetaru writes in his paper Culturomics 2.0: Forecasting Large-Scale Human Behavior Using Global Media Tone in Time and Space published in the September 5 edition of the journal First Monday. Source: “Culturomics 2.0: Forecasting Large-Scale Human Behavior Using Global Media Tone in Time and Space” Special thanks to Alireza Hejazi for this tip! Building Stronger Skyscrapers, Faster Building a skyscraper around a core wall, or vertical spine, could speed up the construction process as well as enhance the structural resistance to earthquakes and high winds. Purdue University civil engineering professors Mark Bowman and Michael Kreger are spearheading a project to develop this speedier construction technique. Traditional core walls are made from reinforced concrete and are produced one floor at a time. The new technique sandwiches concrete between steel plates; the hollow structure is strong enough to allow the surrounding construction to proceed on several floors at once. On a 40- to 50-story building, the core wall system could save three to four months of construction time–and, hence, offer significant dollar savings, according to Bowman. “The idea has been used in England, but not for high-rise buildings and not in seismic locations,” says Bowman. “We are talking about extending it to high rises and in zones where you get significant lateral forces from earthquakes or high winds. So it’s got to be suitable for Chicago or cities on the West Coast.” Source: Purdue University. THE FUTURIST Presents: The Immortal Life? An Evening with Aubrey de Grey On October 12, Aubrey de Grey, a biomedical gerontologist based in Cambridge, UK, will discuss prospects for extending the human life span indefinitely at the Community College of Baltimore, an event sponsored by THE FUTURIST magazine. http://www.wfs.org/content/wfs-fall-events. De Grey is the chief science officer of SENS Foundation, a California-based charity dedicated to combating the aging process. He is also editor-in-chief of Rejuvenation Research, a peer-reviewed journal focused on intervention in aging. He received his BA and PhD from the University of Cambridge in 1985 and 2000, respectively. He’s also author of the bestselling book Ending Aging: The Rejuvenation Breakthroughs That Could Reverse Human Aging in Our Lifetime. Dr. de Grey will explain: (1) why therapies that can add 30 healthy years to the remaining life span of the typical 60-year-old may well arrive within the next few decades, and (2) why those who benefit from such therapies will very probably continue to benefit from progressively improved therapies indefinitely and will thus avoid debilitation or death from age-related causes at any age. This event will take place on October 12 at 7 p.m. at the J-137 Lecture Hall, Essex Campus, Community College of Baltimore, 7201 Rossville Boulevard, Baltimore, MD 21237-3899. Register here . Progress in Improving Global Literacy Is Steady… but Slow Today, 793 million adults around the world–about 64% of whom are women–lack basic reading and writing skills, according to the UNESCO Institute for Statistics. Using the most recent data available (2009), the Institute reports that more than half of the world’s illiterate population resides in South and West Asia, while sub-Saharan Africa represents 21.4% of the human population who cannot read. “However, rates can vary widely across countries in a region. In Mali, for example, merely 26% of the population is literate in contrast to Equatorial Guinea where 93% of the population can read and write,” according to the Institute. The researchers state that literacy rates have risen 2.3% in the past 10 years, and 10.6% in the past 20 years. Sources: UNESCO, Download the PDF Votizen Wins Disruptathon Social Media Competition Pete Ericson’s most recent Disruptathon Social Media Innovation Forum wrapped up in Washington, D.C., on September 27, bringing together technology watchers, venture capitalists, and start-up founders from around the Mid-Atlantic. Disruptathon bills itself as an open innovation contest, “a wholly interactive, highly competitive showcase for the most disruptive future thinkers across all industries.” Various start-ups get two minutes to pitch their ideas to a crowd of peers. The D.C. event’s winner in every category was Votizen a social network that ” allows its members, Votizens, to claim their voter profile, learn about issues and elections, and take collective action with other committed voters through social media. Backed by the original investors in Facebook and Twitter, Votizen is an independent company and is not affiliated with any political party, candidate or special interest group. ” Other participating start-ups of note to futurists included:

    Full Circle: a Bethesda, Maryland, start-up that “allows you to identify and communicate with other members nearby and search or filter members by profile details, keywords, interests or likes. ”
    And Trendspottr, a Web service that identifies real-time trends and trending information from Twitter and Facebook for any search query.

    Disruptathon will partner again with THE FUTURIST magazine for Futurists:BetaLaunch, to be held in Toronto as part of WorldFuture 2012. Here’s a brief write up of the Disrupathon component of WorldFuture 2011. Source: Disruptathon
    What’s Hot @WFS.ORG (Members Only) A selection of articles, special reports, and other future-focused material on our Web site that you might have missed. Members may sign in to read and comment. Not a member? Join now at http://www.wfs.org/renew Turbulence-Proofing Your Scenarios By Rick Docksai Investing in an effective scenario-planning exercise and using the experience wisely can have a big payoff for organizations. Read more The Uncertain Future of the English Language By Edward Cornish Parlez vous “Globish”? If English is your only language, you’re probably doing okay now. But you might not be prepared for the future, suggest the authors of Globish and The Last Lingua Franca Read more News and Events for the Futurist Community

    Upcoming SENS Events in LA and Baltimore
    CHInano: China’s Premiere Nanotech Forum
    APF V-Gathering Futures Fest
    TechCrunch DISRUPT Beijing
    The Creative Community: Free Event
    World Futures Studies Federation’s 21st World Conference

    Time to Renew?
    Renew Online Now.

    Need a Futurist Speaker for Your Next Event? Timothy Mack, president of the World Future Society, and Patrick Tucker, deputy editor of The Futurist magazine are available to take your call. Recent Blog Standouts from WFS.ORG 3 Memes on Africa’s Tech Future from Internet Father, Vint Cerf By Will Mutua This week Kenya has been hosting the Internet Governance Forum under the main theme, “Internet as a catalyst for change: access, development, freedoms and innovation.” Well, yesterday Nairobi’s Innovation Hub hosted one of the “Fathers of the Internet”, Vinton G. Cerf for a session dubbed “Synergestic Communities” as well as a Fireside Chat. Vint and Bob Kahn co-designed the TCP/IP protocols and the architecture of the Internet. Vint is a thought leader on Internet related matters and is currently Google’s Chief Internet Evangelist. Read more Apple Gestures… Quietly Revolutionary By Steven Mandzik I was first introduced to Apple Gestures in January of 2008, when I became hipster #1 and bought the first MacBook Air. Now, three years and eight months later I am still barely using them. Read more The Fed’s Last Arrow By Bob Chernow The Federal Reserve has one last good arrow in its quiver. It costs nothing. It involves little risk. It will jumpstart the economy. The Federal Reserve can enact reasonable underwriting standards for its banks. It can also encourage reasonable underwriting standards from Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac and restart the secondary market in residential mortgages. Read more Has the Giant Stumbled By Stephen Aguilar-Millan The US has had a poor year to date. The American recovery started to run out of steam in the spring, the second round of Quantitative Easing ended in the first half of the year, and the question of Federal debt has come under the spotlight. The key debt issue was the raising of the Federal debt limit. Read more Recap of the State of the Future By Innovaro Research and Insights “We are winning more than we are losing”, emphasized co-founder and director, Jerome C. Glenn at the 2011 State of the Future Conference. The State of the Future is an annual report state by the Millennium Project, which is “an independent non-profit global participatory futures research think tank of futurists, scholars, business planners, and policy makers.” Read more Why are Politicians Pandering to the Religious Right? By Roy Speckhardt America’s politics and religion are increasingly susceptible to biased journalism. This epidemic of misinformation is perhaps best demonstrated by the rise of Fox News, an organization that has garnered substantial ratings while discarding journalistic ethics in order to spread a hardline conservative and religious agenda. Read more Rise of the Working Jobless By Patrick Tucker The American political elite are obsessed with jobs and how to make them, whether through direct government investment (stimulus), which is the cornerstone of the Obama Administration’s recently released “American Jobs Act” or through indirect government investment (tax cuts to the supply side) which is the Republican response. Is this emphasis on jobs misplaced? Read more Are Millennials the First Post-Consumer Generation? By James Lee Twenty years ago, Generation X graduated during what was a comparatively soft recession in the early 1990s. The so-called Thirteenth Generation was branded by the media as being “cynical, directionless, and apathetic.” Subversive films such as Clerks, Reality Bites, and Slacker did nothing to harm that reputation. In comparison, the Millennials are making members of Generation X look like career-obsessed workaholics. Read more. Fahrenheit 21C By Cynthia G. Wagner Back from Round House Theater’s production of Ray Bradbury’s futuristic classic, Fahrenheit 451, with special multimedia effects that really do make that future feel now. Read more.
    Listen to WorldFuture 2011 The World Future Society’s 2011 conference is over, but World Future Society partner IntelliQuest Media offers a full-conference multimedia DVD-ROM and downloadable mp3s for individual sessions.

    FUTURIST UPDATE: News Previews from the World Future Society is an e-mail newsletter published monthly as a supplement to THE FUTURIST magazine.
    ©2011 World Future Society • 7910 Woodmont Ave., Suite 450, Bethesda, MD 20814 • Voice: 301-656-8274 • Fax: 301-951-0394 • Email: info@wfs.org • Web site: http://www.wfs.org • Editor: Patrick Tucker • Contributing Editor: Cynthia G. Wagner • Staff Editor: Aaron M. Cohen • Publisher: Jeff Cornish Friend the World Future Society on Facebook Follow @WorldFutureSoc on Twitter Follow @TheYear2030 (Patrick Tucker) on Twitter

  6. abmoniz diz:

    Sobre o 9º exercício de prospectiva na Japão: relatório 145 do NISTEP – http://www.nistep.go.jp/achiev/ftx/eng/rep145e/pdf/rep145e.pdf

    e a colaboração com a Finlândia: http://www.tekes.fi/en/community/News/482/News/1344?name=Finland+and+Japan+together+focus+on+the+future

  7. abmoniz diz:

    O GT4 do GrEAT vai ter mais uma reunião de trabalho no próximo dia 3 de Dezembro, de manhã, na FCT-UNL. Em breve deixaremos aqui mais informação

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